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IGNORE THE WAR RISK PREMIUM

March 2003

Amid the heated debate about the wisdom, morality, and potential consequences of the current war in Iraq, war's potential economic and financial consequences are often exaggerated. In the capital markets, a special risk premium is thought to exist during wartime, as asset prices are discounted to adjust for increased market risk. Although we find historical evidence of a war risk premium, its importance to investment decision-making has been modest in relation to volatility, inflation, and earnings growth.










 
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